Who are the biggest gainers in a Pulse Asia November 2024 senatorial survey?

From a pre-election September 6 to 13 Ulat ng Bayan survey of independent polling firm Pulse Asia that had 74 names for senator in the 2025 midterm elections, senatorial candidates in a new survey in November should get higher numbers with only around half of the names still on the list, the rest already having chosen not to run.

But the size of the bump is not divided equally, of course. With the names of former president Rodrigo Duterte and sons “Baste” and “Pulong,” Richard Gordon, Gibo Teodoro, Ralph Recto, Vilma Santos, Herbert Bautista, Mar Roxas, Dindong Dantes, Ted Failon, Korina Sanchez, Chel Diokno, among many others, no longer on a list shown to respondents, it would be interesting to find out who were the biggest gainers in a November 2 to 11, 2024 Pulse Asia survey conducted around a month after the October filing of certificates of candidacy.

According to the commissioned Pulse Asia survey seen by Rappler, the biggest gainer was Willie “Kuya Wil” Revillame, but that was simply because he was not on the September list that was presented to 2,400 respondents. From not being in the September 2024 survey, the game-show host placed 5th on the list based on his likely voting percentage of 46.9%. He could rank anywhere from 5th to 9th if the elections were held in November 2 to 11, 2024 or 6 months before the actual mid-term elections in 2025.

Revillame is running as an independent candidate in the May 2025 elections.

After Revillame, three re-electionists, three former senators, and one newbie (not in that order) were the biggest beneficiaries. All gained more than 10-percentage points in the November survey from the September 2024 pre-election survey of Pulse Asia. They are:

Biggest gainers

Manuel “Lito” Lapid (reelectionist) +15.5 points
Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan (former senator) +15.3 points
Francis “Tol” Tolentino (reelectionist) +15.3 points
Vicente “Tito” Sotto III (former senator) +14.6 points
Benjamin “Benhur” Abalos (former Interior secretary) +13 points
Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. (reelectionist) +12.7 points
Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao (former senator) + 11.8 points

Others who scored significant gains (+8 to +9 points) but below 10-percentage points were:

Panfilo “Ping” Lacson (former senator) + 9.6 points
Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan (former senator) +9 points
Imee Marcos (reelectionist) +9 points
Pia Cayetano (reelectionist) +8.9 points

One surprise in this commissioned survey was the flat growth of Makati City Mayor Abigail “Abby” Binay. After gaining 18-percentage points from June to September 2024 — from 18.9% to 37.5% as voters learned that she was running — the term-limited local chief executive ended up statistically the same in the November 2024 survey at 37.1%. The loss of momentum must be a big disappointment given that her camp has been spending a lot of money on both traditional media and new media advertisements, especially after she filed her certificate of candidacy on October 4.

Nonetheless, Binay stayed in the winning column as she was likely to place from 11th to 14th if polls were held in November 2 to 11. Recall that elder sister, incumbent Senator Nancy Binay, now running to replace her as Makati mayor against her brother-in-law (Abby’s husband) Luis Campos, placed 12th in the 2019 senatorial race. Their father, former vice president Jejomar “Jojo” Binay, did not make it in the 2022 senatorial elections, placing 13th. Abby’s numbers may just be a reflection of the Binays’ political base, weaker now than in 2010 when the Binay patriarch beat Mar Roxas in the vice presidential race.

Another candidate who was likely disappointed with the November survey is reelectionist Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa. Although he gained 8.1-percentage points from September, he was still in the precarious rank of 11th to 14th place if elections were held in November, the same ranking two months earlier. It’s possible the House quad committee hearing may be taking its toll on his chances of getting re-elected.

Similarly, Congresswoman Camille Villar may not be too happy with the November pre-election survey. Her camp has also been spending a lot on political ads, both in old and new media. Although she gained 7.3-percentage points from September, her 28.5% voting percentage in November ranked her 13th to 20th.

Former senator “Kiko” Pangilinan’s numbers are looking good in the November survey. He could break the curse of liberal debacles post-2016 if the so-called “pink revolution” gives him another late boost during the 90-day campaign period which starts on February 11, 2025. It remains to be seen whether his recent photo opp with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos in Malacañang, with actress-wife Sharon Cuneta, will be a plus or a minus.

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“Showing up to support and appreciate the initiatives [on Philippine film industry] of Malacañang that we ourselves support and advocate does not mean we have abandoned our principles,” Pangilinan said on X after the controversial photo opp.

Likely winners

So, who were likely to win seats in the upper house of Congress if elections were held on November 2 to 11, 2024?

Erwin Tulfo (administration)
Tito Sotto (administration)
Ben Tulfo (independent)
Pia Cayetano (administration)
Bong Revilla (administration)
Willie Revillame (independent)
Ping Lacson (administration)
Bong Go (Duterte ally)
Manny Pacquiao (administration)
Lito Lapid (administration)
Imee Marcos (administration)
Abby Binay (administration)

Within striking distance or those below Abby Binay were Kiko Pangilinan (liberal opposition) and Bato dela Rosa (Duterte ally).

That would make it 9 administration senators (including Imee), two independent candidates (Ben Tulfo and Willie Revillame), and one from the Duterte camp (Bong Go).

It’s still a long way to go, however, and expect a very tight race for the last two to three spots.

Will the pink revolution also help former senator Bam Aquino get a late boost? He still has a lot of catching up to do given a possible ranking of 18th to 20th in the November 2024 survey.

Will the administration be able to pull up their three other candidates who are close to within striking distance of the so-called Magic 12, namely Camille Villar (15th to 18th), Francis Tolentino (15th to 19th), and Benhur Abalos (15th to 20th)? An oft-cited rule of political operators is that administration candidates could get a boost of 5- to 10-percentage points by being part of the administration slate.

This November pre-election survey follows the trend that incumbents and former senators normally dominate the senatorial race, with limited chances for independent candidates as well as new ones, even if they’re administration-supported.

For a deeper dive on the 2025 mid-term elections, read these articles on voter trends and issues by data forensics company, The Nerve, and Rappler:

– Rappler.com