In a matter of weeks, the world will feel the heavy thud of Donald Trump’s presidency, like an elephant that will swing its trunk wildly, hitting anyone who gets in its way.
Already, Mexico, Canada and China, the largest trading partners of the US, have warned Trump that increasing tariffs will be risky for all their economies. “No one will win a trade war or tariff war,” the BBC quoted a Chinese official as saying.
On the security front, as early as during the campaign, Trump let the world know that he wanted allies to pay up. He asked South Korea to cough up $10 billion a year as payment for the US forces deployed in the Korean peninsula. “It’s a money machine, South Korea,” he said in October.
As for Taiwan, Trump had demanded that the island-nation pay the US for its protection. The US, Trump said, was “no different than an insurance company” and that Taiwan “doesn’t give us anything.”
The US is the most important supplier of arms to Taiwan. Reuters reported that in October, Taiwan announced a new order from the US of almost $2 billion worth of missile systems, with a backlog of ammunition orders worth about $20 billion.
So far, Trump has not mentioned the South China Sea in his pronouncements. It may mean that he doesn’t care about these distant waters dotted with largely uninhabited rocks and reefs, some of which disappear during high tide. Or, the US-China geopolitics playing out in this body of water as well as its significance to international trade have not dawned on him.
Whatever, we’ll wait and see what Trump’s thinking will be on this hot issue in our part of the world.
Trump-proofed?
It looks difficult to reverse our security relations with the US at this point. Trump cannot just roll back the gains in alliance-building made during the Biden administration.
At least three US commitments to the Philippines stand out, apart from the numerous military exercises and bilateral working-level meetings, many of which have led to various multilateral partnerships:
· The allocation of a “once-in-a-generation” $500-million foreign military funding to modernize the Armed Forces and the Coast Guard.
· The groundbreaking of a bilateral Combined Coordination Center in Camp Aguinaldo, symbolic of a solid relationship, “designed to enhance interoperability between the two forces…allowing AFP and US forces to operate as a combined command center for strategic planning, joint operations, intelligence sharing, and rapid response coordination ensuring both nations are ready to respond to regional challenges,” the US Embassy in Manila said.
· The signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement or GSOMIA, which provides the legal framework, including protocols, that makes for seamless and faster real-time information sharing.
Asia’s middle powers
In the next four years, we expect the leadership of America, the most powerful nation on earth, to decline because of Trump’s strong isolationist tendencies and naked transactional thinking on foreign relations. American friends have told me that they won’t be surprised if Trump clinches a trade deal with China and throws geopolitics away, leaving allies like the Philippines in the lurch.
So, as America looks inward, let’s shift our gaze to the middle powers in Asia: Japan, Australia, and South Korea. What’s going for the Philippines is that we have strengthened our relations with these countries in the past years — and the momentum is unstoppable.
Japan
The legislatures of Manila and Tokyo are expected to approve the Reciprocal Access Agreement or RAA soon. This will give the legal framework for the Japanese Self Defense Forces to engage in bilateral exercises with our armed forces.
Last week, Japan sealed a deal with the Philippines to provide an $11-million grant under its Official Security Assistance program. This grant will bolster the Philippines’ maritime security: it will go to rigid-hulled inflatable boats and coastal radar systems for the Navy as well as an air surveillance system for the Air Force.
Australia
The country down under has gone up in the Philippines’ list of friends: Australia became our strategic partner in September, surging the momentum of security relations and marking a number of firsts.
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s visit to his counterpart in Australia in November was significant because it was the first-ever official defense ministers’ meeting. Before that, in 2023, the largest overseas exercise that Australia undertook, Alon, occurred in the Philippines.
In July, the Philippines participated for the first time in Pitch Black, an international aerial exercise, in Australia, sending its aircraft overseas. Another first is coming up. In 2025, the Philippines will participate in Talisman Sabre, the largest-scale joint defense exercise between the US and Australia with multinational participation.
South Korea
Manila and Seoul sealed a strategic partnership in October, boosting security relations between the two countries. Korea has been — and continues to be — a major supplier of defense equipment to the AFP’s modernization program.
The Philippine Air Force has added 12 South Korean-made FA-50 multi-role jet fighters into its air defense capabilities, the PNA reported.
Moreover, South Korean shipyards have manufactured the first two missile frigates of our Navy and are expected to deliver two more corvettes and six offshore patrol vessels in the coming years.
Is this a temporary goodbye to America? Maybe not. Rather, it is a hello, again, to our friends in the region.
Let me know what you think. Do e-mail me at marites.vitug@rappler.com.
Till next time. – Rappler.com